LEXINGTON — Kentucky basketball winning its ninth national championship would be a dream come true for the team’s fervent fan base. It also would be the worst nightmare for two of America’s largest sportsbooks.
The Wildcats are the biggest liability for BetMGM and DraftKings. At BetMGM, UK leads the country in ticket percentage (the percent of total bets) at 11.6 and is second in handle percentage (the percent of total money) at 13.0, trailing only defending national champion UConn (14.6%), with both figures as of Monday. Kentucky is tops nationally in both categories at DraftKings, with 18% of tickets and 24% of the handle at the beginning of this week.
Not surprisingly, those numbers are even more pronounced in the Bluegrass State. More than 70% of bets made within Kentucky at BetMGM are on the Wildcats to win it all, accounting for 75% of the total money wagered. Those percentages are even higher at DraftKings: 75% of bets in Kentucky are on coach John Calipari‘s team to capture the 2024 NCAA Tournament title, which is 81% of the handle.
Despite the abundance of bets placed on UK, there’s still value to be found, Steve Bittenbender said.
“For a futures market — where they’re winning the national title — I would recommend that for anyone,” said Bittenbender, a writer and analyst for BetKentucky.com. “I would recommend, though, that they do it within reason. Kentucky’s odds are quite lucrative, depending on which sportsbook you go to.
“And the great thing with futures odds are, you get the odds as they’re set at that time. So if you come in and take the bet at 30-1, you’re locked into those 30-1 odds for the rest of the season. … If Kentucky comes through this year, it’s going to create a nice, sizable prize for (bettors) if they end up cutting the nets down in April.”
Because of how much roster turnover the Wildcats normally experience each year, Bittenbender admits they’re “tough to judge” as a bettor.
“But, at the same time, you’ve got to look at who Kentucky brings in. They’re always bringing in a top (recruiting) class,” he said. “You’re not looking at players at the bottom of the top 50 or anything like that. You’re looking at the elite of the elite. So that helps in some respects.”
While the Wildcats’ national championship odds vary — from 22-1 at BetMGM and DraftKings to 35-1 at FanDuel — Bittenbender has a theory: He believes their odds, year in and year out, “probably are a little shorter” than a team of a similar profile.
“Just because of the backing that they have, anyone who’s a Kentucky fan is probably going to bet on Kentucky to win the national title — especially here in Kentucky,” he said. “I think there are very few who don’t think Kentucky’s a national contender each and every year. … That might affect (a sportsbook that says), ‘OK, instead of being 20-1, we’ll bump them down to a 15-1 shot just to decrease our liability a little bit.'”
Drilling into wagering on specific UK games, Bittenbender highlighted arguably the team’s defining trait: its high-flying offense. The Wildcats average nearly 90 points per game, which ranks third in Division I. Because of that, Bittenbender said “the over always is in play” when Kentucky takes the court.
But he cautioned UK fans “who live and die with each loss” to take a deep breath.
Let cooler heads prevail before placing a wager.
“If you go on (X, the platform formerly known as) Twitter to post, ‘Fire Calipari’ or something like that, I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that you bet on Kentucky,” he said. “But if you’re able to withstand the losses and understand that’s how a season goes, then I would have no problem saying, ‘OK, go ahead and bet on your team to win.'”
Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.
First appeared on www.courier-journal.com